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KMID : 0380420130370010039
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Journal of Prventive Veterinary Medicine
2013 Volume.37 No. 1 p.39 ~ p.44
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Risk assessment model for the likelihood of introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Korea through the importation of chicken meat
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Pak Son-Il
Ku Hyun-Ok
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Abstract
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This study was conducted in order to develop a quantitative release risk assessment model for estimating the probability that import of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIY)-infected chicken carcasses into Korea will occur at least once through importation of chicken meat. Chicken meat was defined as fresh, frozen, or chilled chicken meat produced for human consumption, which has not been heat treated or subjected to any other processing capable of destroying the virus. In this assessment, the end-point of a release scenario is the arrival in Korea of infected or contaminated chicken meat. The major steps identified in release assessment were: probability that the source flock is infected, probability that a chicken from an infected flock is infected, probability of an infected chicken harboring HPAIV at slaughter, probability of failure in detecting of infected carcasses during processing and inspection, and probability of survival of HPAIV in the carcass. The scenario under which this assessment was conducted was baser on the import of 20,000 metric tons of chicken meat per year, which reflects the data on historical import during 2005~2009 in Korea. Results were based on a Monte Carlo simulation and presented as probability density function graphs as well as tables with key descriptors of the distribution of results. The most likely annual probability of importing at least one infected chicken with HPAIV was estimated to be 2.0×10²(an importation of 20,000 metric tons of chicken meat contaminated with HPAIV will occur in two batches out of 100). At the 95th percentile, the annual probability of importing HPAIV infected chicken meat from a hypothetical exporting country was less than or equal to 3.1×10¹ (30 contaminated batches out of 100). Results of analysis showed that at 95% confidence, 251 or more years are required until the first the importation of HPAIV infected chicken meat, and at 99% confidence, 572 or more years are required. Although the current model is generic, it can serve as a supportive tool in assessment of HPAIV introduction into Korea via imported chicken meat.
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KEYWORD
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HPAL, import risk assessment, chicken meat
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